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GDP in Q1 gets downward revision in new estimate

May 26, 2022

US real gross domestic product contracted at an annual rate of 1.5% in the first quarter, according to a second estimate released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This was revised downward from the 1.4% pace of decline reported in April.

The contraction in first-quarter GDP reflected declines in private inventory investment, exports, federal government spending, and state and local government spending. On the other hand, imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

“In the first quarter, an increase in Covid-19 cases related to the omicron variant resulted in continued restrictions and disruptions in the operations of establishments in some parts of the country,” according to the bureau. “Government assistance payments in the form of forgivable loans to businesses, grants to state and local governments, and social benefits to households all decreased as provisions of several federal programs expired or tapered off.”

It noted the full economic effects of the pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the first quarter because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified.

Separately, the Congressional Budget Office published its economic outlook for the year 2022 and 2023 on Wednesday. It estimated the real GDP to grow by 3.1% in 2022, similar to its earlier forecast last year.

However, it revised its estimates for GDP growth in 2023 and 2024 to 2.2% and 1.5%, respectively.

Overall, the CBO projected the economic growth to slow and inflationary pressures to ease after 2022.

Separately, the US Department of Labor reported initial jobless claims fell by 8,000 in the week ended May 21 to a level of 210,000.

Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of jobless claims rose by 7,250 to a total of 206,750.