Economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics increased their growth projections for the US economy in 2018, the association announced today. The median forecast calls for real GDP growth of 2.9% this year, up from the December 2017 estimate of 2.5%.

Real GDP — which grew 1.3% in 2017 — is then expected to decline to 2.7% in 2019.

“NABE Outlook panelists are more optimistic about the US economy in 2018 than they were three months ago, especially regarding prospects for the industrial sector of the economy,” said NABE VP Kevin Swift, chief economist at American Chemistry Council. “The panel’s median forecast for average annual real gross domestic product growth in 2018 is 2.9%, up from 2.5% in the December survey. In addition, 76% of panelists believe that risks are weighted to the upside.”

Also, panelists now forecast nonfarm payroll growth to average 184,000 jobs per month in 2018, up from 158,000 in the December survey and close the actual job gains of 182,000 per month in 2017. However, panelists forecast a smaller gain of 159,000 jobs per month in 2019.

Consistent with the panel’s outlook for higher nonfarm payroll employment growth, the unemployment rate is expected to average 3.9% this year, according to the median forecast. That is down from both the December forecast of 4.1% and the 2017 average of 4.4%.

For 2019, the median forecast is for the unemployment rate to average 3.8%.

The median forecast for hourly compensation growth in 2018 weakened to 2.7% from 3.0% in the December survey. However, it is still higher than the 1.5% actual increase in 2017, and higher than the expected pace of consumer price inflation of 2.4%.

Half the panel believes that US labor markets are near “full employment;” identical shares of 24% believe that moderate slack remains in US labor markets or that labor markets are modestly above “full employment.”

NABE is a professional association for business economists and others who use economics in the workplace. The survey included 51 forecasters and was conducted between Feb. 28 and March 7, 2018.