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GDP growth gets small downgrade in second estimate

February 28, 2024

US real gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 3.2% in the fourth quarter, according to a second estimate released today by the US Bureau of Economic Analysts. The second estimate is lower than the 3.3% in the advance estimate. GDP had grown 4.9% in the third quarter.

Today’s GDP estimate is based on more complete source data than was available for the initial or “advance” estimate.

Reuters reported that economists had expected the second estimate to be unchanged.

The bureau attributed the deceleration in real GDP to downward revisions in private inventory investment and federal government spending. These were partly offset by upward revisions to state and local government spending, consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment and exports. Imports turned upward.

The 3.2% increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, state and local government spending, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment.

Meanwhile, imports, a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased in the fourth quarter.

A third estimate of fourth-quarter GDP growth is scheduled for March 28.