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GDP growth accelerates to 4.9% in third quarter, beats estimates

October 26, 2023

US real gross domestic product grew faster than anticipated in the third quarter, increasing at an annual rate of 4.9%, according to an advance estimate released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The increase marks an acceleration from the 2.1% growth witnessed in the second quarter. 

According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysts, the acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter “reflected accelerations in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and federal government spending and upturns in exports and residential fixed investment. These movements were partly offset by a downturn in nonresidential fixed investment and a deceleration in state and local government spending. Imports turned up.

The US economy likely grew in the third quarter at its fastest pace of any quarter in nearly two years, again defying dire warnings of a recession, as higher wages from a tight labor market helped to power consumer spending, Reuters reported. Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP to rise at a 4.3% rate. 

“We’re seeing the exact opposite (of a recession),” Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, told Reuters. “The American consumer, the biggest engine of the US economy, seems to have had a mid-year resurgence, largely because confidence improved through the summer because of the rally in the stock market and steadier gasoline prices.”

The second estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on Nov.29.