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GDP grows at 4.1% in Q2, fastest rate since 2014

July 27, 2018

US real gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 4.1% in the second quarter, the fastest rate in almost four years, according to the “advance” estimate of GDP growth released today by the US Commerce Department. It was the fastest growth since 2014.

The department also revised the increase in first-quarter real GDP for the US to 2.2% from the previous estimate of 2.0%.

The second-quarter estimate reflects positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending. These were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The New York Times reported the increase in exports was driven in part by a surge in soybean shipments where buyers may have been trying to stock up before tariffs hit.

Brian Schaitkin, senior economist at The Conference Board, also noted that consumer spending rose and a tightening labor market could add to spending power moving forward if it brings wage growth. However, the higher spending did not translate into accelerating housing demand.

And tariffs remained a concern.

“So long as tariff proliferation is avoided, the US economy should strengthen during the remainder of 2018 before gradually decelerating back towards its long-term trend later in 2019,” Schaitkin said.

Several in the staffing industry had commented on the tax cut propelling growth in the industry in a recent article in Staffing Industry Review magazine.