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GDP grows 2.6% in Q4, rate is lower than forecast

January 26, 2018

US real gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 2.6% in the fourth quarter, according to the “advance” estimate of GDP growth released today by the US Commerce Department. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.2%.

Bloomberg reported growth missed the median forecast of 3% in a Bloomberg survey and prevented the longest streak of 3%-or-better growth since 2005.

While the fourth-quarter figure broke a run of two quarters of above 3.0% growth, the fact that a 2.6% reading can be considered “below expectations” illustrates the current strength of the economy, according to Brian Schaitkin, senior economist at The Conference Board.

“A gross domestic purchases figure of 3.6% growth in the fourth quarter better captures current conditions as the GDP number was suppressed by a slowdown in inventory build due to higher demand, which will encourage firms to increase 2018 activity,” Schaitkin said in a statement. “The global economic upturn provides an upside for the US economy and is likely to strengthen even further in 2018. Continued gains in US business confidence, culminating with the recent tax legislation, will help keep the economy on track for near 3% growth this year.”