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GDP estimate for Q1 gets downward revision; Q2 may have faster growth

June 28, 2018

Estimated first-quarter growth in real GDP for the US was lowered to an annual rate 2.0% in a “third” estimate released today by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Its previous estimate put growth at an annual rate of 2.2%.

MarketWatch reported that economists it polled had predicted the real GDP for the first quarter would be unchanged. However, it’s believed the second quarter will reflect much faster growth.

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta reported its GDPNow forecast model estimate of second-quarter real GDP is 4.5%. The model is not an official forecast but a running estimate. Reuters reported the $1.5 trillion tax-cut package is seen as spurring faster growth in the second quarter.

Several in the staffing industry had commented on the tax cut propelling growth in the industry in a recent article in Staffing Industry Review magazine.

Real GDP rose 2.9% in the fourth quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of jobless claims rose by 1,000 last week to a level of 222,000 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 221,000, the US Department of Labor reported.

Total initial unemployment claims rose by 9,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis to a level of 227,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 218,000.