The US economy looks weaker than it did in August, according to the fourth-quarter Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Survey of Professional Forecasters.

US GDP growth is expected to grow at 1.0% this quarter, down from 1.2% in the previous forecast.

Forecasters also lowered their growth forecasts for the next three quarters. For full-year 2023, forecasters expect GDP to grow at 0.7% and 1.8% in 2024.

Today’s report also revised projected unemployment rates upward.

Panelists expect the unemployment rate to increase to 4.2% in 2023 from 3.7% in 2022 and will remain essentially unchanged over the following two years.

In addition, forecasters raised their estimates for job gains for the current quarter. However, they revised downward their estimates for the next three quarters.

Projections for the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job gains at a monthly rate of 492,800 in 2022 and 143,600 in 2023.

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