Employment growth over the last three months was at its lowest reading since April 2021, according to the “Business Conditions Survey” released today by National Association for Business Economics. In addition, 64% of survey respondents said they feel the US is either already in a recession or has a more-than-even likelihood of entering a recession in the next six months.

“The results of the January 2023 NABE Business Conditions Survey indicate widespread concern about entering a recession this year,” said NABE President Julia Coronado, founder and president, MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC. “For the first time since 2020, more respondents expect falling rather than increased employment at their firms in the next three months.”

NABE’s survey found 25% of respondents said employment rose at their firms over the last three months while 10% said it fell — for a net rising index of 15. That’s down from 22 in the October survey and the lowest since the April 2021 survey.

Looking forward over the next three months, the net rising index on employment turned negative.

NABE’s report found that 12% of firms planned to hire in the next three months while 19% planned to reduce staff, resulting in an NRI of -7. It had been at a level of eight in the October report and at 21 in the year-ago survey.

Still, 63% of respondents report rising wages over the past three months, unchanged from the October 2022 survey.

The current NABE survey also asked about labor shortages; however, 34% said their firm wasn’t facing a labor shortage. In addition, 14% said that while they have a labor shortage, it has already started to abate. And 28% said they expected labor shortages to abate in the second half of this year, though only 5% expected labor shortages to abate in the first half of this year.

Respondents also indicated recession expectations remain high, with more than half putting more than 50-50 odds that the US is already in a recession (3%) or will be entering a recession over the next 12 months (53%). In the October survey when 64% of respondents indicated that the US is either already in a recession or has a more-than-even likelihood of entering a recession in the next 12 months.

Respondents to the survey included 60 NABE members. NABE is an association of business economists.