While The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index rose in April to a reading of 116.18, up from a downwardly revised 115.51 in March, the organization projects job growth will continue over the next few months but at a slower pace. It also continues to forecast a small recession.

“The [Employment Trends Index] ticked up in April and remains elevated, though below the peak it reached in March 2022,” said Frank Steemers, senior economist at The Conference Board. “The index signals job gains will likely continue, albeit somewhat slower, over the next few months. We continue to forecast a short and mild recession starting in 2023, although it may take until later in the year to see a substantial weakening in job growth or monthly job losses.”

Steemers noted the labor market remains strong but shows visible softening across several indicators.

“Job openings and quits have declined, layoffs have ticked up and compensation growth is softening,” Steemers said. “Still, the labor market remains resilient and tighter than before the pandemic, complicating the Federal Reserve’s efforts to slow inflation. This may prompt the Fed to raise interest rates by an additional 25 basis points to decelerate job growth and wage gains.”

April’s increase in The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index was driven by positive contributions from four of its eight components. The ratio of involuntarily part-time to all part-time workers was the largest positive contributor, followed by job openings, the percentage of firms with positions unable to fill right now, and the percentage of respondents who said they find “jobs hard to get.”