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Employment Trends Index edges down, but tighter labor market still foreseen

July 10, 2017

The Conference Board’s US Employment Trends Index edged down in June to a reading of 133.07 from May’s downwardly revised reading of 133.32. But data still indicate job growth to remain strong.

“Despite the June decline in the Employment Trends Index, job growth will remain strong in the coming months. The decline is small and comes after a series of large increases since early 2017,” said Gad Levanon, chief economist, North America, at The Conference Board. “Further job growth in the coming months will continue to tighten the labor market, and will likely result in further wage acceleration later this year.”

The Employment Trends Index is an index based on eight labor market indicators:

  • The percentage of respondents who say they find “jobs hard to get” in The Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey.
  • Initial unemployment claims for the US Department of Labor.
  • Percentage of firms with positions not able to be filled right now from research by the National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation.
  • Number of employees hired by the temporary-help industry as tracked by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • Ratio of involuntarily part-time to all part-time workers tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • Job openings tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • Industrial production as tracked by the Federal Reserve board.
  • Real manufacturing and trade sales as tracked by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Separately, the US Department of Labor on Friday reported the US added 222,000 jobs in June and temp jobs rose by 13,400.