The US economy beat expectations in the second half of this year, though growth will slow next year, according to the December results of the biannual Livingston Survey.

Economists surveyed now believe US gross domestic product will have increased at a 3.1% annualized growth rate in the second half of this year. That’s up from a contraction of 0.7% estimated in the previous Livingston survey released in June 2023.

However, slower growth is ahead. Economists in the survey forecast GDP to grow 1.0% on an annualized basis in the first half of 2024, unchanged from their June forecast. Looking further out to the second half of next year, they estimated GDP growth will rise to just 1.2%.

Unemployment rates. The forecasters now expect a lower unemployment rate this month at 3.9%, down from the 4.1% projected in the June survey. In addition, they now forecast the unemployment rate to be 4.2% in June 2024, down from 4.6% in the previous survey. The unemployment rate will hold steady at 4.2% in December 2024, according to the predictions.

Consumer price index. On the year-to-year forecast for consumer price index inflation, the economists expect an annual average rate of 4.1% this year and 2.5% in 2024, unchanged from the June survey. However, they expect the CPI inflation to continue to fall to an annual average rate of 2.2% in 2025.

The Livingstone Survey was started in 1946 by the late columnist Joseph A. Livingston and is the oldest continuous survey of economists. The December survey included responses from 23 economists. It’s produced by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve.