The business environment is challenging as the economy slows and companies reported slow employment; however, inflation is continuing to ease, according to the October 2023 NABE Business Conditions Survey released today by the National Association for Business Economics.

“The panel suggests that inflation is continuing to ease, which is good news for consumers,” Carlos Herrara, NABE Business Conditions Survey chair and chief economist at Coca-Cola North America, said in a press statement.

Panelists’ expectations that the US economy will avoid a recession in the next 12 months also continued to improve with 77% of panelists indicated a probability of 50% or less, while only 18% suggested a recession is more likely than not.

The survey also found that 13% of respondents said employment had been rising at their firms over the past three months, while 21% said it had been falling. Meanwhile, 21% of respondents anticipate employment will rise at their firms over the next three months, and 8% anticipate it will fall.

The percentage of respondents reporting shortages in skilled labor remained unchanged from July at 38%, while 19% reported shortages of unskilled labor, down from 21% in July.

In a special question, the survey asked, “If your company is facing labor shortages, when do you expect those shortages will start to abate?” Thirty-eight percent of respondents reported not having labor shortages, down six percentage points from the July survey. However, among those respondents who have not yet seen improvement in labor shortages, 25% do not foresee improvement until the second quarter of 2024 or later.

Meanwhile, 53% of respondents reported rising wages at their firms over the past three months, while 2% reported falling wages over the past three months. However, 49% of respondents expect their firms’ wages to rise over the next three months, up from 44% in July, while 4% expect their firms’ wages to fall in the next three months.

The October 2023 NABE Business Conditions Survey included responses from 52 NABE members and was conducted from Oct. 9 to Oct. 17.