Easing economic growth is seen ahead, and employment growth is slowest since 2020, but inflation is cooling, according to the “April 2023 NABE Business Conditions Survey” of businesses economists released today by the National Association for Business Economics.

“The panel’s overall view is that inflation is continuing to ease,” said Carlos Herrera, NABE Business Conditions Survey chair and chief economist, Coca-Cola North America. “Forty percent of respondents report that prices charged are rising — down from 46% who held this view in the January 2023 survey and 49% from a year ago. However, the panel believes that there is more work to be done against inflation as the share of panelists expecting prices to rise in the next three months moved higher.”

Panelists’ views are nearly evenly split on the probability that the US economy will enter a recession in the next 12 months; 44% of panelists indicated more than 50% probability, while 53% suggested less than or about 50% probability of a recession in the next year.

The survey also found that 15% of respondents said employment had been rising at their firms over the past three months, while 15% said it had been falling — subtracting the number of those shedding staff from those adding workers results in a net rising index of zero. That’s the lowest net rising index since the July 2020 and October 2020 surveys. For the month of January, 25% of firms had added staff while 10% reduced staff for a net rising index of 15.

Meanwhile, 15% of respondents anticipate employment will rise at their firms over the next three months with 19% anticipating it will fall for a net rising index of negative four. Still, that’s improved from the negative seven net rising index in the January survey.

The percentage of respondents reporting shortages in skilled labor decreased to 33%, down from 40% in January, while 11% reported shortages of unskilled labor.

In a special question, the survey asked, “If your company is facing labor shortages, when do you expect those shortages will start to abate?” Close to half of respondents, 45%, reported that their firms are not facing any labor shortages; 11% indicated that any such shortages have already started to abate and 7% said the shortages would abate in the second quarter. However, 22% expect labor shortages to start to abate in the fourth quarter of 2023 or later.

In addition, for the third consecutive survey, 63% reported rising wages at their firms over the past three months. No respondent reported falling wages over the past three months, and none expects wages to fall over the next three months. However, 43% of respondents expect their firms’ wages to rise in the next three months — the smallest share since the October 2020 survey.

The April 2023 NABE Business Conditions Survey included 55 business economists and was conducted from April 4 to April 12.