Economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics lowered their growth projections for the US economy in 2016, the association announced today. However, they expect the economy to grow two more years.

“Four-fifths of panelists participating in NABE’s September Outlook Survey expect the next US business cycle peak to occur in 2018 or later,” according to NABE President-elect Stuart Mackintosh, executive director, Group of Thirty. “NABE forecasters expect the Fed to raise its interest-rate target by another quarter of one percent later in 2016 and one-half of one percent in 2017.”

NABE is a professional association for business economists and others who use economics in the workplace. The survey included 46 forecasters and was conducted between Aug. 8 and Aug. 25.

The forecaster’s median forecast in the new survey is for inflation-adjusted US real gross domestic product to grow at an annualized rate of 1.5% in 2016, down from 1.8% forecasted in a June survey. The median forecast for 2017, remained at 2.3% real GDP growth.

Real GDP grew 2.4% in 2015.

The September NABE Outlook Survey marks the fourth consecutive markdown of 2016 real GDP growth by respondents, according to Gregory Daco, head of US economics, Oxford Economics. “Lower expectations for business investment are the main contributor to the reduced GDP outlook,” he said.

Panelists forecast nonfarm payroll growth to average 185,000 jobs per month in 2016 — down from 201,000 forecast in the June survey — and then slow to 168,000 per month in 2017 as the labor market approaches full employment. The projected job creation figure for 2017 reflects a decrease from the 192,000 jobs per month anticipated in the June survey.

The unemployment rate is now expected to average 4.8% in 2016 and then decline to 4.6% by the fourth quarter of 2017. unchanged from projections in the June survey.