Economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics lowered their growth projections for the US economy in 2016 and 2017, the association announced last week.

The forecaster’s median forecast in the new survey is for inflation-adjusted US gross domestic product (real GDP) to grow at an annualized rate of 2.2% in 2016, down from 2.6% forecasted in a December 2015 survey. The median forecast for 2017 is 2.4% real GDP growth.

“Most panelists in the NABE March Outlook Survey expect the next US business cycle peak will not occur until 2018 or later,” said NABE President Lisa Emsbo-Mattingly, CBE, director of research, global asset allocation at Fidelity Investments. “In the three months since the last survey, 66% of the panelists have lowered their forecasts for 2016 growth of inflation-adjusted gross domestic product, or real GDP [the broadest measure of economic activity]. In light of volatility of markets and data, the panel forecasts the US will grow 2.2% in 2016, a deceleration from the 2.4% real GDP growth realized in 2015.”

Panelists foresee nonfarm payroll growth averaging 195,000 jobs per month in 2016 and then slowing to 179,000 per month in 2017 as the labor market approaches full employment. Projected job creation figures for 2016 have been revised downward from 210,000 jobs per month in the December 2015 survey. The unemployment rate is expected to average 4.7% in 2016, down from 4.8% projected in the prior survey, and then decline to 4.5% by the fourth quarter of 2017.

NABE is a professional association for business economists and others who use economics in the workplace. The survey included 48 forecasters and was conducted from Feb. 24 to March 10, 2016.