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View All NewsEconomists forecast lower US unemployment rates, raise estimate of new jobs
Economists lowered their forecast for the US unemployment rate, and they have upgraded the number of new jobs expected, according to the third-quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
The economists now expect the unemployment rate to average 3.8% in this quarter, down from the previous forecast of 3.9%.
In addition, they lowered their unemployment rate forecasts for the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year to 3.7% from 3.8%. And they forecast the jobless rate for the second and third quarters of next year to be 3.6%.
They also raised projections for job growth this year to 194,800 per month based on an annual-average level for this year. The previous forecast had it at 185,900.
Projected monthly job gains were also raised to 167,800 for next year from the previous estimate of 160,800.
The Survey of Professional Forecasters is based on a poll of 38 economists.
| Third Quarter 2018 Survey of Professional Forecasters median forecasters | ||||||
| Real GDP | Unemployment rate | Payrolls (000s/month) | ||||
| Q2 report | Q3 report | Q2 report | Q3 report | Q2 report | Q3 report | |
| 2018: | ||||||
| Q3 | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 175.0 | 197.1 |
| Q4 | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 160.4 | 173.3 |
| 2019: | ||||||
| Q1 | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 160.9 | 161.5 |
| Q2 | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 151.7 | 162.0 |
| Q3 | NA | 2.6% | NA | 3.6% | NA | 150.1 |
| Annual Average Data | ||||||
| 2018 | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 185.9 | 194.8 |
| 2019 | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 160.8 | 167.8 |
| 2020 | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | NA | NA |
| 2021 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | NA | NA |