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Consumer confidence rises in November after three months of decline

November 28, 2023

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose in November after three consecutive months of decline. The index now stands at a reading of 102.0 (1985=100), up from a downwardly revised 99.1 in October.

“November’s increase in consumer confidence was concentrated primarily among householders aged 55 and up; by contrast, confidence among householders aged 35-54 declined slightly,” Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, said in a press statement. “General improvements were seen across the spectrum of income groups surveyed in November. Nonetheless, write-in responses revealed consumers remain preoccupied with rising prices in general, followed by war/conflicts and higher interest rates.”

The Expectations Index — based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions — rose to a reading of 77.8 (1985=100) in November, up from its downwardly revised reading of 72.7 in October. However, despite the month’s improvement, the Expectations Index remains below 80 for a third consecutive month — a level that historically signals a recession within the next year.

The Present Situation Index — based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions — fell to a reading of 138.2 (1985=100) from 138.6 reported in October.

“Assessments of the present situation ticked down in November, driven by less optimistic views on current job availability, which outweighed slightly improved views on the state of business conditions,” Peterson said.

More consumers in November said that business conditions were “good,” 19.8% compared to 18.3% in October. However, more consumers, 19.5%, also said they were “bad” in November, up from 19.8% in October. 

Consumers’ appraisal of the labor market was mixed in November, as 39.3% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” up slightly from 37.9% in October, while 15.4% said jobs were “hard to get,” up from 14.1% in October.

Consumers’ assessment of the short-term labor market outlook was slightly more optimistic in November. While 16.1% of consumers expect more jobs to be available, up from 15.3% in October, 19.6% anticipate fewer jobs, down slightly from 19.7%.