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Confidence in US economy surges among CPA execs

December 09, 2016

Optimism about the US economy surged among certified public accountants who hold leadership positions in their companies — such as CEO, CFO or controller — since the last quarter, according to the fourth-quarter Economic Outlook Survey released by the American Institute of CPAs.

Sixty-eight percent of the CPA executives surveyed expressed optimism about the US economy, up from 38% in the third-quarter survey and the highest percentage since early 2015. It had been as low as 28% at the beginning of 2016.

“We’re seeing renewed confidence in the US economy, building on the encouraging signals on the outlook for revenue, profit and business expansion we saw in the third quarter,” said Arleen Thomas, AICPA’s managing director Americas and global offerings. “The removal of the uncertainty that the presidential election cycle represented appears to be a driving factor in this significant increase in optimism.”

Business executives’ optimism about the outlook for their own organizations also rose eight percentage points to 61%, its highest level since early 2015.

Overall, 55% of the executives surveyed reported their company currently has the appropriate number of employees, up from the range of 48% to 53% reported over the past year. The percentage of companies planning to hire edged down to 20% from 21% in the third-quarter report. However, respondents who said they had too few employees but were reluctant to hire decreased to 15%, down from 17% in the third-quarter survey and the lowest percentage of the year.

Headcounts are now expected to increase by 1.6% over the next 12 months, up from 1.3% last quarter. The healthcare provider industry is expected to be the hottest sector with 2.8% staffing growth. On the flip side, retail trade is expected to be the slowest, with an anticipated growth rate of 0.8%, down from 1.1% last quarter.  Also notable is an expected slowdown in technology hiring, to 2.0% from 4.9%.

And although business executives remain concerned about the talent pool, “availability of skilled personnel” slipped one spot to the No. 4 top challenge for businesses in the quarter from the third top concern last quarter.

Meanwhile, the CPA outlook index — a gauge of executive sentiment within the survey — rose five points in the fourth quarter to 74, driven largely by an increase in the US economic optimism category. The index is at its highest level since the first quarter of 2015, but remains below a post-recession high of 78 set in the fourth quarter of 2014. An index rating above 50 indicates a positive outlook.

The survey of AICPA business and industry members was conducted from Nov. 9 to Nov. 30, and included 600 qualified responses.