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Confidence in US economy rises among CPA execs, hiring plans vary

September 01, 2016

Optimism about the US economy among certified public accountants who hold leadership positions in their companies — such as CEO, CFO or controller — rose since the last quarter, according to the third-quarter Economic Outlook Survey released by the American Institute of CPAs. Business executives are predicting an increase in corporate expansion for the coming year, but some remain cautious with hiring plans.

The number of CPA executives who are optimistic about the US economy increased a point, to 38% from 37%, in the third quarter after declining to 28% in the first quarter of 2016. However, the percentage of those pessimistic also increased a point from 21% to 22%.

“We’re seeing some stability in optimism about the US economy after a few volatile quarters,” said Arleen Thomas, AICPA’s senior VP of management accounting and global markets. “The response by businesses has been variable, though, depending on the size of the company and the industry it’s in. Some are ready to add new staff and make other investments, while others are taking a more cautious stance.”

Overall, 48% of the executives surveyed reported their company currently has the right staffing, down from the 49% to 53% range reported over the past year. The percentage of companies that are planning to hire increased to 21%, up from 19% in the second-quarter report and the highest percentage of the past year. Respondents who said they had too few employees but were reluctant to hire decreased to 17% from 18% in the second-quarter survey.

Headcounts are now expected to increase by 1.3% over the next 12 months, up from 1.1% last quarter. The technology industry is expected to be the hottest sector with 4.4% staffing growth. On the flip side, not-for-profit and banking are expected to be the slowest, with anticipated growth rates of 0.4%, down at least one percentage point for both industries since last quarter.

Business executives have some concern about the talent pool, however — “availability of skilled personnel” remained as the No. 3 top challenge for businesses in the quarter.

Meanwhile, the CPA outlook index — a gauge of executive sentiment within the survey — rose one point in the third quarter to 69, but still remains well below a post-recession high of 78 set in the fourth quarter of 2014. An index rating above 50 indicates a positive outlook.

The survey of AICPA business and industry members was conducted from Aug. 9 to Aug. 24, and included 452 qualified responses.