Calgary and Edmonton will post the strongest GDP growth this year — 4.6% and 3.9% respectively — among the 13 major metropolitan areas covered by The Conference Board of Canada’s Metropolitan Outlook: Autumn 2017.

In Calgary, renewed investment and increased drilling are spurring growth in the primary and utilities and manufacturing sectors, while the construction industry is slowly recovering. However, with oil prices expected to rise only gradually, Calgary’s real GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.1% next year. Employment is expected to follow suit, with job growth moderating to 1.1% in 2018 from 2.7% in 2017. Although Calgary’s unemployment rate is expected to fall to 7.7% by 2018, down from a 22-year high of 9.4% last year, it will remain above the national average.

Like Calgary, Edmonton’s economy is benefiting from higher oil prices and increased investment and drilling plans. Job growth is projected to improve next year, but consumer spending will slow in step with the overall economy. Thus, wholesale and retail trade output growth will also slow. Also like Calgary, Edmonton’s unemployment rate is expected to fall next year but remain above the national average.

Toronto is expected to boast the fastest-growing metropolitan economy outside of Alberta this year, and is forecast to be a growth leader again in 2018. The local construction sector has been a key growth driver. The healthy economic activity will be mirrored in the city’s labor market as a total of 85,200 new jobs are forecast to be created in 2017-18. As a result, the unemployment rate is expected to fall from to 6.7% in 2018 7.0% in 2016.

Click on chart to enlarge