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CFOs lower expectations for economic growth: Richmond Fed

June 28, 2023

Chief financial officers foresee slightly slower growth ahead for the US economy, according to The CFO Survey report released today by Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta.

Growth expectations for US gross domestic product for the next year were lowered to 1.0% from 1.4% in the same survey last quarter.

CFOs were also asked to rate their optimism about the overall US economy on a scale of zero to 100. The average response in the survey, 54.8, was in line with the first-quarter survey. However, optimism was higher among participants who responded after the debt ceiling resolution passed Congress on May 31. The average optimism rating was 57.4 among those who responded after the resolution passed Congress and 51.5 among those who responded before the resolution. Optimism among respondents about the financial prospects of their own firms also improved following the resolution on the debt ceiling.

“Financial leaders of firms became decidedly more optimistic about the US economy and their own prospects without the fear that Congress would not come to agreement on the debt ceiling,” said Sonya Ravindranath Waddell, Richmond Fed economist.

“However, the debt ceiling deal did not change expectations of financial decision makers for slower GDP growth in the next year,” Ravindranath Waddell continued. “Small firms also seem to be experiencing a much more challenging environment with respect to revenue growth and financing than large firms.”

The survey found that nearly 40% of small firms (those with fewer than 500 employees) expect tighter financing will curtail business spending. That compares to about a quarter of large firms.

Small firms were also more likely than large firms to report that financing conditions would make it difficult to replace or repair capital assets and refinance debts.