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CEO economic outlook index rises but majority concerned about US debt trajectory

March 20, 2023

The US economy is resilient but navigating several headwinds, including high inflation and growing concerns over the national debt, according to the Business Roundtable’s Q1 2023 CEO Economic Outlook Survey released today.

The CEO Economic Outlook Index rose to a value of 79 in the first quarter, up six points from the prior quarter. However, the results remained at or below the long-run average of 84 and above the expansion or contraction threshold of 50 for the third consecutive quarter.

In addition, plans for hiring in the hiring subindex increased 4 points to a value of 65, while plans for capital investment fell by 1 point to a value of 67, and expectations for sales rose 13 points to a value of 104.

“This quarter’s survey reflects continued caution resulting from high inflation and the policy measures the Federal Reserve is implementing to bring it under control,” said Business Roundtable Chair Mary Barra, chair and CEO of General Motors. “Business leaders look forward to working with policymakers to promote policies that stimulate growth, investment, and expanded opportunity across the country.”

CEOs project the US gross domestic product to grow 1.4% for the year in their second estimate of 2023 GDP growth.

Furthermore, the report revealed that 71% of CEOs are either very concerned or moderately concerned about the current trajectory of US debt.

“While the US economy remains resilient, CEOs are cautiously approaching the next six months,” said Business Roundtable CEO Joshua Bolten. “Our members have been clear that the full faith and credit of the United States should not be put at risk and that we should take steps to address growing deficits and debt. We encourage the White House and Congress to find a bipartisan path forward that takes default off the table and begins to put our fiscal house in order.”

The survey includes responses from 141 CEOs. It was conducted between Feb. 8 and Mar. 8.