Business executives in the US have mixed views on the likelihood of a recession this year despite continued macroeconomic challenges, according to a report released today by JPMorgan Chase. The organization found that 45% of business leaders anticipate a recession before year-end or believe the economy is already in one, 36% do not expect a recession this year and 20% are uncertain whether one will occur.

“The resilience of US consumer spending and other tailwinds has helped the economy have a stronger start to 2023 than expected, impacting business leaders’ conviction of a recession occurring this year,” said Ginger Chambless, head of research at JPMorgan Chase’s commercial banking. “Still, businesses continue to face the persistent challenges of inflation, interest rates and labor shortages, making it critical for leaders to position their companies for stability in an uncertain economic environment by maintaining strong liquidity and adequate cash balances.”

The moderated recession fears come as most business leaders remain pessimistic or neutral in their economic outlooks, though the report shows that optimism for the global and national economy slightly increased from the start of 2023:

• National economy. The percentage of business leaders expressing pessimism about the national economy dropped to 37% from 43% at the start of 2023. And 29% are bullish on the national economy, an increase from 22% six months ago.
• Global economy. The share of business leaders who are pessimistic about the global economy for the year ahead fell to 39% from 60%, while 46% hold neutral outlooks. Only 15% of respondents are optimistic about the global economy, up from 8% six months ago.

Meanwhile, 67% of business executives remain confident in their company’s performance for the next year.