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Business Roundtable Outlook survey finds higher GDP estimate, hiring plans

September 20, 2017

CEOs now expect 2017 US gross domestic product growth of 2.1%, up 0.1% from projection made in June, according to the Business Roundtable’s third-quarter 2017 CEO Economic Outlook Survey. CEOs’ plans for hiring jumped to the highest reading in more than six years. However, expectations for sales dipped, and plans for capital investment moderated slightly.

The survey found 43% of respondents expect their company’s US employment to increase in the next six months, up from 36% in the second-quarter survey. On the flip side, 13% expect employment to decrease in the next six months, down from 16% in the prior survey. And 44% expect no change when asked this quarter.

“As the largest employers in the country, Business Roundtable CEOs are sending a positive economic signal with their plans for increased hiring,” Business Roundtable President and CEO Joshua Bolten said. “They see the progress that has been made toward creating a more favorable regulatory environment, while tax reform remains an economic imperative.”

According to the survey, 73% of respondents expect their company’s sales to increase in the next six months, down from 77% in the second-quarter survey. And 39% expect US capital spending to increase in the next six months, down from 43% in the prior quarter’s survey.

The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index — a composite index of CEO expectations for the next six months of sales, capital spending and employment — edged up in the third quarter to a reading of 94.5 from 93.9 in the second quarter. For the second quarter in a row, the index reached its highest level since hitting 95.4 in the second quarter of 2014. The Index has also significantly exceeded its historical average of 80.3 for three consecutive quarters and remains well above 50, suggesting CEOs’ continued confidence in the US economy.

Responding to a special question in this quarter’s survey, CEOs identified the US tax system as the most important disadvantage for the US economy relative to other major economies.

“The survey results demonstrate that CEOs remain confident in the US economy and that we must seize on the opportunity to continue to press for pro-growth economic policies that create jobs and fuel wage growth at all levels of the economy,” said Jamie Dimon, chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and chairman of Business Roundtable. “Our CEOs are committed and actively engaged in the effort to pass tax reform because they recognize that it will make us stronger as a country and create more opportunity for all Americans.”

The Business Roundtable is an association of CEOs. The third-quarter 2017 survey included 140 member CEOs and was completed between Aug. 18 and Sept. 6, 2017.