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Business Roundtable Outlook sees lower GDP estimate

March 16, 2016

CEOs now expect 2016 US gross domestic product growth of 2.2%, down from an estimate of 2.4% at the end of 2015, according to the Business Roundtable’s first-quarter 2016 CEO Economic Outlook Survey. CEOs expect sales and capital expenditures to increase in the next six months, however, the report found hiring plans declined by nearly 10 points from last quarter.

The survey found 29% of respondents expect their company’s US employment to increase in the next six months, down from 35% in the 2015 fourth-quarter survey; 38% expect employment to decrease in the next six months, up from 34% in the prior survey; and 33% expect no change, up from 31% in the fourth-quarter survey.

“Mixed expectations for near-term sales, investment, hiring and growth point to an economy that continues to lack momentum,” said Doug Oberhelman, chairman and CEO of Caterpillar Inc. and chairman of Business Roundtable.

According to the survey, 34% of respondents expect their company’s US capital spending to increase in the next six months, up from 30% in the fourth-quarter survey.

“These results only reinforce the need for Congress and the administration to act this year to enact policies that boost job creation and economic growth, such as quickly ratifying the TPP, modernizing America’s outdated business tax system, and embracing a smart regulatory environment,” said Oberhelman.

The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index — a composite index of CEO expectations for the next six months of sales, capital spending and employment — edged up in the first quarter to a reading of 69.4 from 67.5 in the fourth quarter but remains near three-year lows. The long-term average of the Index is 79.9.

The Business Roundtable is an association of CEOs. The first-quarter 2016 survey included 141 member CEOs and was completed between Feb. 10 and March 2, 2016.