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67% of US adults anticipate a recession at the end of this year

May 15, 2023

Some two-thirds of US adults, 67%, expect the economy will enter into recession later this year, according to Northwestern Mutual’s 2023 “Planning & Progress Study” released today.

Among those anticipating a recession, 33% believe it will be brief, lasting a year or less, while 19% think it will extend beyond two years. The study also revealed that three out of four expecting a recession anticipate it to have a high or moderate impact on both their near-term (78%) and longer-term (75%) finances.

The top three measures being taken to address economic uncertainty include cutting costs (64%), building up savings (50%) and postponing large expenses until the economy is on a more stable footing (41%).

“Periods of uncertainty provide opportunities to stress test financial strategy,” Northwestern Mutual chief customer officer Christian Mitchell said. “Consumers want to know if their wealth-building plans and their lifestyles will remain on track if the economy pulls back, and many are taking positive steps to prepare for whatever economic season may come.”

The report’s survey also found 60% of Americans are postponing plans and purchases due to economic uncertainty while 36% are postponing daily purchases like meals out, new clothes and event tickets. In addition, 29% are shelving large purchases or projects like remodeling a home or buying a new car.

The report’s survey includes responses from 2,740 US adults aged 18 or older. It was conducted by The Harris Poll online between Feb. 13 and Mar. 2.