As global economic prospects remain subdued and fraught with uncertainty in 2024, 56% of chief economists anticipate a weakening global economy, while 43% foresee either unchanged or stronger conditions, according to the World Economic Forum’s Chief Economists Outlook released Jan. 15. 

The study also found that a majority of chief economists believe labor markets and financial conditions will loosen over the coming year.

“The latest Chief Economists Outlook highlights the precarious nature of the current economic environment,” World Economic Forum Managing Director Saadia Zahidi said in a press release.

“Amid accelerating divergence, the resilience of the global economy will continue to be tested in the year ahead,” Zahidi said. “Though global inflation is easing, growth is stalling, financial conditions remain tight, global tensions are deepening and inequalities are rising — highlighting the urgent need for global cooperation to build momentum for sustainable, inclusive economic growth.”

The study noted that despite a general reduction in expectations for high inflation worldwide, regional growth outlooks vary widely and no region is slated for very strong growth this year.

The South Asia region as well as East Asia and Pacific remain positive and broadly unchanged compared to the previous survey released last year, with 93% and 86%, respectively, expecting at least moderate growth in 2024. Conversely, the outlook in Europe has significantly weakened since September 2023, with 77% of respondents anticipating weak or very weak growth.

The outlook is also weaker in the US as well as the Middle East and North Africa, with about six in 10 respondents in each region foreseeing moderate or stronger growth this year, down from 78% and 79%, respectively.

China faces concerns as 69% of chief economists expect moderate growth as weak consumption, lower industrial production and property market concerns weigh on the prospects of a stronger rebound.

Geopolitical rifts add to the uncertainty, with seven in 10 chief economists expecting an acceleration in geoeconomic fragmentation in 2024.

While two-thirds of chief economists expect industrial policies to create new growth hotspots and vital new industries, 79% also warn of rising fiscal strains and 66% divergence between higher- and lower-income economies.

Regarding AI, chief economists expect varying impacts across income groups. In high-income economies, 79% said generative AI will increase the efficiency of output production, while 74% feel it will bring innovation this year.

Looking ahead, 94% expect these productivity benefits to become economically significant in high-income economies in the next five years, compared to 53% for low-income economies.

Additionally, 73% of chief economists do not foresee a net-positive impact on employment in low-income economies, and 47% said the same for high-income economies.

The survey was conducted between November and December 2023 and included responses from 30 economists.