The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the US declined by 0.3% in March to a reading of 102.4. The decline follows a 0.2% increase in February, pointing to a fragile outlook for the US economy.  

“February’s uptick in the US Leading Economic Index proved to be ephemeral as the Index posted a decline in March,” Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board, said in a press release.“ 

Negative contributions from the yield spread, new building permits, consumers’ outlook on business conditions, new orders and initial unemployment insurance claims drove March’s decline.” 

The LEI contracted 2.2% over the six months between September 2023 and March 2024, a smaller decrease from the 3.4% decline over the previous six months. 

While the Leading Economic Index’s six-month and annual growth rates remain negative, the pace of contraction has slowed, Zabinska-La Monica noted. 

“Overall, the Index points to a fragile — even if not recessionary — outlook for the US economy. Indeed, rising consumer debt, elevated interest rates and persistent inflation pressures continue to pose risks to economic activity in 2024,” Zabinska-La Monica said. 

Meanwhile, The Conference Board projects a slowdown in real GDP growth following the rapid expansion in the second half of 2023.  
As consumer spending decelerates, GDP growth is expected to moderate during the second and third quarters of 2024. 

The Bureau of Economic Analysis’ advance estimate of first-quarter 2024 GDP growth is scheduled for April 25.