US employment growth could pause later this year, The Conference Board warned today. Its Employment Trends Index fell to a reading of 111.25 in April from a downwardly revised reading of 112.16 in March.

“The ETI fell in April, a sign that employment growth could stall in the second half of 2024,” Will Baltrus, associate economist at The Conference Board, said in a press release. “The ETI has been on a downward trajectory since its peak in March 2022, and this month signals a continuation of that trend.”

Baltrus noted US jobs data from May 3 found that the US added only 175,000 jobs in April. The increase was below the average monthly gain of 242,000 over the prior 12 months.

Still, the index remains historically elevated and above its prepandemic level, suggesting aggregate job losses are less likely than a slowdown in employment growth, he said. And it is unlikely that substantial job losses will occur over the coming months, as employers are still facing labor shortages.

In addition, ETI component “percentage of firms with jobs not able to fill right now” rose 40% in April and remains elevated. The measure is based on data from the National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation.

“Shortages and hoarding are keeping the unemployment rate low and wages sticky,” Baltrus said. “Sticky wages along with elevated interest rates are raising the cost of doing business for many companies. These factors may play into employer decisions to hire more workers, but we posit that slowing consumer demand for goods and services ahead will be the primary driver of slower growth and an uptick in the unemployment rate ahead.”

April’s decrease in the ETI was driven by negative contributions from three of its eight components: percentage of respondents who say they find “jobs hard to get,” the ratio of involuntarily part-time to all part-time workers, and number of employees hired by the temporary help industry.

The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight leading indicators of employment. They are:

• Percentage of respondents who say they find “jobs hard to get” (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey)
• Initial claims for unemployment insurance (US Department of Labor)
• Percentage of firms with positions not able to fill right now (National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
• Number of employees hired by the temporary help industry (US Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• Ratio of involuntarily part-time to all part-time workers (BLS)
• Job openings (BLS)
• Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)
• Real manufacturing and trade sales (US Bureau of Economic Analysis)