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US economy sees slight expansion: Beige Book

April 18, 2024

The US economy posted a slight expansion since late February, according to anecdotal data from the US Federal Reserved Beige Book report released April 17. 

Ten of the 12 Federal Reserve districts reported either slight or modest economic growth. That’s up from eight in the previous report. 

Employment also rose at a slight pace. Nine districts reported slow to modest increases, while the remaining three reported no changes in employment. Most districts reported an increase in labor supply and in the quality of job applicants. Skills shortages still persisted, but wage growth rates recently returned to their historic average. 

“On balance, contacts expected that labor demand and supply would remain relatively stable, with modest further job gains and continued moderation of wage growth back to pre-pandemic levels,” according to the report. 

Here are insights from the Federal Reserve districts. 

Boston. Business activity expanded at a modest pace, and employment was unchanged overall. Employers on Cape Cod faced challenges filling jobs. Software and IT employment increased slightly, and manufacturing employment was flat or down slightly where there was attrition. 

New York. Economic activity in the New York district held steady. Labor market conditions were described as “solid,” and employment grew slightly. Wage growth remained modest. 

Philadelphia. Economic activity in this district was also described as “steady,” and employment edged up. However, staffing and recruitment activity was constrained because of lower demand for labor. Staffing contacts said companies are choosing to maintain their current labor force, and some have become more selective in candidates they hire. 

Cleveland. A modest increase in economic activity was reported along with a modest increase in the growth of employment. Contacts noted an improvement in worker availability. 

Richmond, Virginia. A slight increase in economic growth took place. Contacts reported that finding workers remained difficult, but there were some improvements. One office equipment wholesaler reported it was difficult to find good workers, but those workers were hired when found regardless of whether there was an open position. 

Atlanta. A modest improvement in economic activity was reported. A few firms slowed hiring in response to weaker demand and were downsizing through attrition. Most firms reported it was easier to fill open roles, though there were pockets of shortages. Most firms said they were investing in automation, and several said they were exploring AI to drive efficiencies and free up workers for other tasks. 

Chicago. Economic activity increased slightly. Contacts said labor conditions continued to cool. Several noted higher numbers of job applications per posting and improved applicant quality. 

St. Louis. While economic activity increased slightly, employment remained unchanged from the previous report. The labor market continues to be tight, particularly in rural areas. 

Minneapolis. Employment grew slightly, though labor demand softened. Staffing firm contacts reported slower demand for workers. In Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, demand for permanent, full-time jobs slowed, but demand rose for temporary and seasonal positions. A staffing firm contact in Wisconsin said the current job market was more unpredictable than it has ever been, with some business slowing while other were “ramping up out of nowhere.” An employer contact in Minnesota reported businesses were seeing less ghosting and more applicants following through with the hiring process. 

Kansas City. The economy in this district expanded slightly, and overall hiring activity edged up. As labor market tightness continued to ease, business contacts reported little willingness to provide mid-year wage increases for employees. 

Dallas. Labor availability improved and the economy in this district expanded modestly. Staffing firm contacts in the district noted that despite a slowdown in hiring, there is an increased preference for permanent employees over temporary or contract workers. Staffing firm contacts also noted declines wage pressure. 

San Francisco. Economic activity grew at a slight pace; however, contacts expected slightly weaker economic conditions ahead. Employers in the district generally reported holding their headcounts steady or increasing them marginally. However, some firms in technology, the financial industry and real estate used layoffs and attrition to reduce their workforces. Many contacts deployed generative AI tools to augment rather than replace workers, although one contact in the Pacific Northwest noted several tech firms began using generative AI to replace some mid-level staff.