Major shortages of healthcare workers nationwide projected by 2026

While the US faced a tight supply even before Covid, major shortages of healthcare workers are projected in every state by 2026, according to the “2021 External Healthcare Labor Market Analysis” released by Mercer. It also found mental health professionals will be in high demand.

“The healthcare workforce is burned-out following a nearly two-year face-off against Covid-19,” said John Derse, healthcare industry leader, Mercer. “The demands placed on healthcare workers since the start of the pandemic have been unrelenting and overall, this data shows that there will not be enough healthcare workers to fill demand in the near future.”

Mercer’s report noted the US is losing healthcare professionals due to burnout at a faster rate than expected, a significant portion of physicians plan to retire and there will be a sharp increase in demand for mental health professionals.

Every state is different, but here are some trends Mercer is seeing:

There will be a shortage of healthcare workers at the lower end of the wage spectrum. It noted 9.7 million people work as medical assistants, home health aides, nursing assistants and other lower-wage occupations. Mercer estimates more than 6.5 million workers will leave this workforce in the future and the workforce will be short more than 500,000 of these workers. New York and California will have the largest shortages. However, some states will have surpluses, including Washington, Georgia and South Carolina.
Primary care will be increasingly provided by nonphysicians. Mercer says 21% of family medicine, pediatric and OB/GYN and other primary care physicians will move into retirement age over the next five years. On the other hand, demand for them will grow by 4%.
There will be significant shortages of nurses in half of US states, but surpluses in some areas of the South and Southwest. The largest projected shortages will be in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Colorado, Illinois and Massachusetts. However, states that may see surpluses include Georgia, Texas and South Carolina.
A hiring rush for mental health providers will emerge by 2026. There will be a 10% increase in demand for mental health workers by 2026. The largest shortages will be in Massachusetts, Illinois, Pennsylvania, California and Colorado. States that may see surpluses include Washington, Texas, Ohio, Florida and Georgia.

Mercer’s report, “2021 External Healthcare Labor Market Analysis” is available online.