Employment growth will be insufficient to make up for the losses suffered from the Covid-19 crisis until at least 2023, according to a new assessment by the International Labour Organisation (ILO).

The ILO’s World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2021 projects the global crisis-induced ‘jobs gap’ will reach 75 million in 2021, before falling to 23 million in 2022.

The related gap in working-hours, which includes the jobs gap and those on reduced hours, amounts to the equivalent of 100 million full-time jobs in 2021 and 26 million full-time jobs in 2022. This shortfall in employment and working hours comes on top of persistently high pre-crisis levels of unemployment, labour under-utilisation and poor working conditions.

ILO’s data found that global unemployment is expected to stand at 205 million people in 2022, surpassing the level of 187 million in 2019. This corresponds to an unemployment rate of 5.7%. Excluding the Covid-19 crisis period, such a rate was last seen in 2013.

The worst affected regions in the first half of 2021 have been Latin America and the Caribbean, Europe and Central Asia. In these regions, estimated working-hour losses exceeded 8% in the first quarter and 6% in the second quarter, compared to global working-hour losses of 4.8% and 4.4% in the first and second quarter, respectively.

“Global employment recovery is projected to accelerate in the second half of 2021, provided that there is no worsening in the overall pandemic situation,” the ILO stated. “However this will be uneven, due to unequal vaccine access and the limited capacity of most developing and emerging economies to support strong fiscal stimulus measures. Furthermore, the quality of newly created jobs is likely to deteriorate in those countries.”

The fall in employment and hours worked has translated into a sharp drop in labour income and a corresponding rise in poverty. Compared to 2019, an additional 108 million workers worldwide are now categorised as poor or extremely poor (meaning they and their families live on the equivalent of less than USD 3.20 per person per day).

The ILO’s report also found that the Covid-19 crisis has also made pre-existing inequalities worse by hitting vulnerable workers harder.

“The widespread lack of social protection, for example among the world’s two billion informal sector workers, means that pandemic-related work disruptions have had catastrophic consequences for family incomes and livelihoods,” the report stated.

“Without a deliberate effort to accelerate the creation of decent jobs, and support the most vulnerable members of society and the recovery of the hardest-hit economic sectors, the lingering effects of the pandemic could be with us for years in the form of lost human and economic potential and higher poverty and inequality,” said ILO Director-General, Guy Ryder said.