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China – Third quarter GDP figures lower than expected

19 October 2021

As reported by Reuters, the National Bureau of Statistics of China released the country’s third quarter GDP figures on Monday. Although China’s third quarter GDP was up 4.9% y/y, this was lower than the 5.2% estimated by a poll of analysts.

Reuters notes that the government’s lending to the property sector and electricity shortages contributed to the lower-than-expected growth figure.

Per the article and the National Bureau of Statistics press release, industrial output was up 3.1% y/y in September, the lowest growth since March of 2020. The sector has faced power rationing and environmental curbs on heavy polluters. Meanwhile, new construction starts were down for the sixth straight month as projects are put on hold. Producer prices were up 10.7% y/y.

Retail sales were a bright spot, up 4.4% in September compared to 2.5% in August. Likewise, the total value of exports and imports of goods was up 15.4% y/y. Jobless figures were also encouraging; the unemployment rate was 4.9% in September, down from 5.1% in August.

Nonetheless, in response to continued structural changes by the Chinese government and third quarter growth data, some analysts have lowered their 2021 GDP estimates for the country. The People’s Bank of China expects the economy to grow 8% this year.