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Australia – Steady improvement noted in labour market conditions

08 September 2014

There were +7.7% more jobs advertised across Australia during August 2014 compared with the same month last year, according to the latest figures from ANZ Bank’s job advertisement survey. Compared with the previous, the number of jobs advertised increased by +1.5%, this follows a month-on-month rise of +0.3% in July.

Warren Hogan, Chief Economist for ANZ Bank, commented: “Recent trends in job advertising are consistent with a gradual turnaround in the labour market. ANZ job ads are up +8% over the year-to-date, while the other key labour market condition ‘cross-checks’ have also generally continued to improve recently. Importantly, these developments appear to jar with the surprise jump in July’s unemployment rate to 6.4%, and suggest recent labour market conditions are steadily improving.”

“Recent trends in business confidence and capacity utilisation suggest a relatively solid pick-up in the preconditions for hiring, while business surveys also show that the labour market looks a little tighter lately. Moreover, there has been a drop in the number of unemployment benefits recipients and consumers’ unemployment expectations have improved. All of these developments are consistent with a very gradual turnaround in conditions in the labour market.”

“We envisage the unemployment rate remaining a touch above 6% for a few quarters and only very gradually falling from there. On the one hand, strengthening labour demand in some labour intensive industries, such as construction, health, and retail, is an encouraging sign. However, the effect on employment from the wind-back in mining investment is likely to have further to run, which will be a hindrance to a strong improvement in the unemployment rate over the next year or so,” Mr Hogan concluded.

The average number of internet job advertisements placed per week increased by +8.1% in August, compared with the same month last year. Newspaper advertisement, however, decreased year-on-year by -5.6%.

Of Australia’s eight states and territories; three reported growth in the number of jobs advertised in August, compared with the same month last year. The strongest growth was reported in Northern Territory (+54%), followed by Western Australia (+2.7%), and Queensland (+0.7%). The sharpest declines were reported in South Australia (-58.2%), followed by the Australian Capital Territory (-26.7%), and Tasmania (-18.3%).