US temporary staffing revenue is estimated to grow 3% this year to $152.1 billion, which represents a downgrade from an earlier forecast of 4% in April, according to the “US Staffing Industry Forecast: September 2019 Update” report released by Staffing Industry Analysts.

Factors such as tariffs and trade uncertainty — along with slowing global growth and business concerns about the late stage of the recovery — prompted the revision.

Next year, the growth rate is expected to hold steady at 3%, according to the report. Growth had been 4% in 2018.

All segments of staffing are expected to post growth in revenue except office/clerical where revenue is expected to fall 1%.

Fastest growth this year is expected in the marketing/creative and education temporary staffing segments, where growth is expected at 7% each.

“The biggest risk to our forecast is the possibility of a recession occurring during the forecast period — a risk that may be 40% or higher according to some surveys,” the report said. “Nevertheless, we believe the possibility of monetary and fiscal stimulus, as well as trade tension de-escalation, remain government levers for reducing the severity of recession risk.”

SIA’s forecast includes revenue growth estimates for all segments of temporary staffing and direct hire.

Corporate members of SIA can download the full report.