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World – Global unemployment expected to rise by 3.4 million this year

16 January 2017

The global unemployment rate is expected to rise from 5.7% to 5.8% in 2017 representing an increase of 3.4 million in the number of jobless people, according to a new report from the International Labour Organisation (ILO). 

The report, entitled World Employment and Social Outlook – Trends 2017, also shows that the number of unemployed persons globally in 2017 is forecast to stand at just over 201 million, with an additional rise of 2.7 million expected in 2018, as the pace of labour force growth outstrips job creation.

“We are facing the twin challenge of repairing the damage caused by the global economic and social crisis and creating quality jobs for the tens of millions of new labour market entrants every year,” ILO Director-General, Guy Ryder, said.

“Economic growth continues to disappoint and underperform – both in terms of levels and the degree of inclusion. This paints a worrisome picture for the global economy and its ability to generate enough jobs. Let alone quality jobs. Persistent high levels of vulnerable forms of employment combined with clear lack of progress in job quality – even in countries where aggregate figures are improving – are alarming. We need to ensure that the gains of growth are shared in an inclusive manner,” Ryder said. 

The report shows that vulnerable forms of employment, defined as contributing family workers and own account workers, are expected to stay above 42% of total employment, accounting for 1.4 billion people worldwide in 2017. 

“In fact, almost one in two workers in emerging countries are in vulnerable forms of employment, rising to more than four in five workers in developing countries,” Steven Tobin, ILO Senior Economist and lead author of the report, said. 

As a result, the number of workers in vulnerable employment is projected to grow by 11 million per year, with Southern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa being the most affected.

Furthermore, according to the report, the number of workers earning less than USD 3.10 per day is expected to increase by more than 5 million over the next two years in developing countries. 

The authors estimate that a coordinated effort to provide fiscal stimulus and an increase in public investment that takes into account each country’s fiscal space, would provide an immediate jump-start to the global economy and reduce global unemployment in 2018 by close to 2 million compared to ILO’s baseline forecasts.  However, ILO states that such efforts should be accompanied by international cooperation.

“Boosting economic growth in an equitable and inclusive manner requires a multi-facetted policy approach that addresses the underlying causes of secular stagnation, such as income inequality, while taking into account country specificities,” Tobin said.