Recruitment firm ManpowerGroup has published its Q1 2014 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, a forward looking survey of over 65,000 employers across 42 countries and territories that has revealed diverse hiring expectations across the globe.

Employers across the globe expect a cautious yet positive approach to hiring for the start of 2014, despite ongoing economic uncertainty and disruption. Employers in 34 of the 42 countries and territories expect to increase payrolls in the next three months, compared with 29 in Q4 2013. Hiring plans strengthened in exactly half of the countries and territories surveyed. Outlooks are stronger in 21 countries compared with a year ago, and have declined in 17.

EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA

Employers are positive about their hiring plans in 16 of 24 countries in EMEA, an improvement from 11 of 24 a year ago. The economic uptick is beginning to be felt in hiring intentions and the results are the most positive they have been since the recession hit in 2008.

The region still has challenges containing the only countries in the world reporting negative hiring forecasts; Belgium (-1%), Slovakia (-2%), Spain (-4%), Finland (-6%), Ireland (-6%), and Italy (-10%).

In this region, hiring intentions are most optimistic in Turkey (+16%), Poland (+9%), Greece (+7%), and Hungary (+6%). Greece has undertaken a surprising shift from negative hiring intentions to one of the highest in Europe. The finance sector remains very confident at 14% in Germany, +11% in the UK, and +5% in France. In Italy, the Agriculture sector reports a +20% point increase in confidence, year-on-year, and a +16% point increase in Spain.

Jonas Prising, ManpowerGroup President overseeing Southern Europe and the Americas, said: “It is encouraging to see that the improving economic situation in Europe is beginning to be translated into hiring intentions. More still needs to be done in countries like Italy, Spain and Ireland to improve the confidence of employers but it is overwhelmingly positive that we have reached the most encouraging levels since the recession began.”

Darryl Green, ManpowerGroup President overseeing Northern Europe, Middle East and Asia Pacific, said: “Employers are cautiously optimistic regarding their hiring intentions. Confidence is slowly returning but many are still erring on the side of caution, with positive outlooks reported but at relatively low levels for the time being. With further economic improvement this number could begin to climb higher.”

In France recent economic trends are affecting employers with seven out of 10 sectors reporting negative hiring expectations. Construction (+5%), Finance (+5%) and Public & Social (+6%) are the only sectors reporting positive hiring expectations. Employers in Agriculture (-13%) report the most negative. However, the outlook overall remains positive at +2% revealing that France may be more stable than expected.

Employers in Germany remain cautiously optimistic with employers in 8 out of 9 sectors reporting positive or neutral hiring expectations. The biggest change from this time last year is within the Wholesale, Retail, Restaurant & Hotels sector with a 10 percentage point decrease. The Finance sector remains very confident at +14%, which is positive considering the economic influence that Germany has across Europe.

Italy is showing the biggest signs of strain this quarter. With a negative outlook of -10%, employers in 9 out of 10 sectors report negative hiring expectations. The bright spot is the Agriculture sector which reports a 20 percentage point increase in confidence, year-on-year. This is balanced out by a 17 percentage point decrease, year-on-year, in the Energy Sector. It is clear that the emergence from recession has not translated for Italy thus far with the 12^th consecutive quarter of negative hiring intentions.

Spain begins 2014 with a 7 percentage point increase in confidence, although overall expectation remains negative. Positive increases are reported in 7 out of 10 sectors surveyed and employers in Agriculture report a 16 percentage point increase, the only sector reporting a positive outlook overall at +12%. Economic trends are beginning to have a positive effect on employer hiring expectations in Spain.

In the UK: Employers in the UK are feeling the benefit of the recent economic uptick with only Construction reporting a negative hiring outlook at -6%, however this is a 7 percentage point increase, year-on-year. As stability returns to UK hiring, employers in the Finance sector report the most confidence at +11% followed by employers in the Energy sector reporting a +9% outlook.

AMERICAS

Employer hiring intentions remain positive in all 10 countries ManpowerGroup surveys in the Americas. However, the first-quarter forecasts are mostly weaker in both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year comparisons.

Colombian employers expect the strongest hiring pace with three out of 10 employers expecting to grow first-quarter payrolls. The country’s upbeat forecast is driven by a considerable uptick in demand for talent in the Mining sector, as well as active labour markets expected in the Orinoquia and Pacific regions.

A steady hiring pace is also expected in Brazil, but the country’s outlook has weakened by varying degrees for nine consecutive quarters and now stands at its weakest point since the Brazilian survey was launched in 2009.

The U.S. outlook remains upbeat and is relatively stable in both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year comparisons. The recent government shutdown seems to have had little effect on the first quarter forecast. U.S. employers expect the hiring pace to remain relatively stable in comparison to the prior quarter and last year at this time; the national outlook is buoyed by solid hiring plans in the Leisure & Hospitality sector where more than a quarter of the employers surveyed indicate they will add to their workforce.

Positive hiring intentions are reported in each of Canada’s industry sectors and regions, with Construction sector employers reporting the strongest forecast for the second consecutive quarter.

Meanwhile, the outlook in Mexico’s Mining & Construction sector improves for the third consecutive quarter, boosted by growing demand for talent in the country’s petroleum industry. However, while forecasts remain uniformly positive, the overall hiring pace in Mexico is expected to soften as outlooks decline by varying degrees in all industry sectors and regions when compared to forecasts from Quarter 1 2013.

Jonas Prising commented: “Despite fears that the recent government shutdown might dent hiring confidence and the multitude of outside factors that contribute to an uncertain landscape, American employers continue on the five-year pattern of steady jobs growth. Hiring has been particularly robust in wholesale and retail, and our survey tells us that is likely to be the case into the new year.”

ASIA PACIFIC

Regionally, employers throughout Asia Pacific continue to report positive Net Employment Outlooks. Job seekers in Taiwan are likely to benefit from the most robust hiring pace in the region, with more than one of every three employers indicating they plan to add to their payrolls in the first quarter.

First-quarter prospects are also bright for India’s job seekers with a brisk hiring pace expected in most industry sectors and all regions. Forecasts are strongest in the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector and the Mining & Construction sector where job seekers are expected to benefit from aggressive efforts to improve infrastructure throughout the country. The hiring pace is also expected to remain brisk in the Services sector where IT talent continues to be aggressively recruited by both national and multi-national firms.

Japan’s outlook stands at its strongest since the second quarter of 2008 following more than four years of steadily improving forecasts. Hiring plans in the country’s Mining & Construction sector are also the strongest reported by employers since Japan’s survey started in Quarter 3 2003.

Hiring plans also remain positive in China, but the outlook continues to rest at a position below the more optimistic forecasts of late 2010 and early 2011, adding further evidence that the country’s growth track may be levelling off.

The region’s weakest forecast is reported in Australia despite moderate quarter-on-quarter improvements in both the Mining & Construction and Finance sectors.

Darryl Green commented: “Chinese employers are increasingly concerned that they will experience managerial shortages in the future. To continue on its path of sustainable growth, China needs to build a home-grown cadre of globally minded, savvy business leaders. The situation is similar in Japan; the needs of corporate Japan are not met by the young people that are being produced by Japanese education and society. Unless actions are taken to address these problems, the country’s competitive edge will continue to erode.”