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UK – Temporary workers down slightly in November quarter, unemployment rate ticks up as vacancies fall

17 January 2023

The number of temporary workers in the UK fell by 0.11% in the September-November 2022 period when compared to the same three-month period last year, according to seasonally adjusted data by the Office of National Statistics (ONS).

The number of temporary workers totalled approximately 1.69 million from September to November 2022.

When compared to the previous three-month period, the number of temporary workers grew by 1.16%

Temporary workers self-identify when surveyed by the ONS, and they comprise those who are on fixed-period contracts, temporary agency workers, casual workers, seasonal workers and others in temporary work.

Of the 1.69 million temporary employees during the period ended November 2022, approximately 357,098 were temporary because they could not find a permanent job; 506,066 did not want a permanent job; 166m684 had a contract with a period of training, and 660,064 cited other reasons.

Of the 1.69 million temporary employees during the period, approximately 819,205 were men, while 870,707 were women.

Further labour market data from the ONS also showed that the unemployment rate for September to November 2022 increased by 0.2% on the quarter to 3.7%.

For the three months ending November 2022, the highest unemployment rate estimate in the UK was in the North East (4.7%) and the lowest was in the South West (2.1%).

The East of England had the largest increase in the unemployment rate compared with the same period last year, increasing by 0.5%, with both the North East and London seeing the largest decrease of 1.0%.

Meanwhile, the UK employment rate was estimated at 75.6% in September to November 2022, largely unchanged compared with the previous three-month period and 1.0% lower than before the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic (December 2019 to February 2020).

The ONS noted that the number of employees and part-time self-employed workers increased over the latest three-month period, while full-time self-employed workers decreased.

For the three months ending November 2022, the highest employment rate estimate in the UK was in the South West (79.3%) and the lowest was in Northern Ireland (71.3%); Scotland (76.1%) saw a record high employment rate.

The largest increase in the employment rate compared with the same period last year was in Northern Ireland, up by 3.3%, with Wales seeing the largest decrease of 1.8%.

The economic inactivity rate decreased by 0.1% on the quarter to 21.5% in September to November 2022. The decrease in economic inactivity during the latest three-month period was driven by those aged 16 to 24 years and those aged 50 to 64 years. Looking at economic inactivity by reason, the quarterly decrease was driven by those inactive because they are students, long-term sick, or retired.

The highest economic inactivity rate estimate in the UK was in Northern Ireland (26.6%) and the lowest was in the South West (18.9%) for the three months ending November 2022.

The number of vacancies in October to December 2022 was 1,161,000, a decrease of 75,000 from July to September 2022. Despite six consecutive quarterly falls, the number of vacancies remains at historically high levels. The fall in the number of vacancies reflects uncertainty across industries, as ONS survey respondents continue to cite economic pressures as a factor in holding back on recruitment.

Growth in average total pay (including bonuses) and regular pay (excluding bonuses) among employees was the same at 6.4% in September to November 2022; for regular pay, this is the strongest growth rate seen outside of the coronavirus pandemic period. Average regular pay growth for the private sector was 7.2% in September to November 2022, and 3.3% for the public sector. Outside of the height of the coronavirus pandemic period, this is the largest growth rate seen for the private sector.

In real terms (adjusted for inflation) over the year, total and regular pay both fell by 2.6%. This is slightly smaller than the record fall in real regular pay we saw in April to June 2022 (3.0%), but still remains among the largest falls in growth since comparable records began in 2001.

ONS data also found that the redundancy rate has increased to 3.4 per thousand employees in September to November 2022 but remains low. Furthermore, there were 467,000 working days lost because of labour disputes in November 2022, which is the highest since November 2011.

Total weekly hours worked decreased on the quarter by 10 million. When compared to last year, all regions saw increases in total weekly hours. London had the most hours worked, at 162 million hours per week, and also saw the largest increase in total hours worked compared with the same period last year, up 9.0 million hours.

The number of payrolled employees continued to rise in all regions; comparing December 2022 with the same period of the previous year, increases in payrolled employees ranged from 3.6% in London to 1.8% in the North West.

ONS director of economic statistics Darren Morgan said, “In the most recent three months, employment levels were largely unchanged on the previous three months. However, unemployment rose, driven by more young people who have only recently become unemployed, meaning overall there was a small increase in people actively engaged in the jobs market, whether working or looking for work.”

Neil Carberry, Chief Executive of the Recruitment & Employment Confederation (REC), said, “Today’s official labour market data confirms the trends that business surveys have been suggesting for some time. Demand for workers is still higher than pre-pandemic, which combines with candidate shortages to make hiring workers a challenge. Slower economic performance and high inflation is starting to slow this trend, but it has not reversed. High inflation and a tight labour market have also fed into higher pay for existing and new staff, a challenge to companies who are facing rising costs across the board. At an unpredictable time, it is also no surprise to see firms dipping into the UK’s world-leading temporary work market for short-term access to key skills.”

Tania Bowers, Global Public Policy Director at the Association of Professional Staffing Companies (APSCo), said, “While the latest data indicates that vacancies fell in the final quarter of 2022, the figures shows that jobs remain at historically high levels, highlighting the continued pressure on the labour market. In this environment, the uptick in part-time self-employed professionals between September and November 2022 is promising in a skill short market.”

“The ONS data on days lost due to strike action in November – which hit the highest level recorded since November 2011 – does raise concerns with further strike action from teachers and nurses confirmed,” Bowers said. “The unrest across the public sector is indicative of a range of problems that extend beyond pay. With those industries planning strikes reporting skills shortages for some time now, these disputes are further evidence of recruitment systems which are broken. Education and healthcare public sector recruitment in particular needs an overhaul to not only close skills gaps, but also improve budgets by reducing the reliance on costly agency workers.”

ManpowerGroup (UK) Operations Director, Gareth Vale, said, “Today’s ONS labour market statistics show that the jobs market remains remarkably robust but also reinforces the continued stresses that employers face in finding the talent they need. There is very little sign of the tight UK labour market easing significantly any time soon.”

“The pressing challenge is pay,” Vale added. “Whilst growth is at a 20-year high, this still represents a real-terms cut as prices continue to outpace earnings creating real pressures for many households. All eyes will be on tomorrow's inflation figures and hoping for some good news here, with hopes that inflation eases later this year.”