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UK – Private sector employment rate in Northern Ireland falls at quickest rate since 2013, business activity also drops amid Brexit uncertainty

08 April 2019

Northern Ireland’s private sector employment level fell at its fastest rate in nearly six years, while business activity also decreased for the first time since July 2016, according to March data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Manager Index.

The Index suggested that Brexit uncertainty pushed the Northern Ireland private sector into decline in March.

The Business Activity Index fell below the 50.0 no-change mark in March to signal a monthly reduction in output in the Northern Ireland private sector. The reading of 48.0 was down from 50.2 in February and brought an end to a 29-month sequence of expansion.

Meanwhile, in addition to employment falling at its steepest rate since 2013, export orders were at a 70-month low.

“As has been the case throughout 2019 so far, employment decreased in the Northern Ireland private sector in March,” Richard Ramsey, author of Ulster’s report, stated. “Furthermore, the rate of job cuts was solid, having accelerated to the steepest since April 2013. Some panellists responded to lower order books by reducing their workforce numbers, while others reported staff resignations. Services employment fell at the fastest pace in almost six-and-a-half years, while declines were also registered in manufacturing and construction. Bucking the overall trend, retailers increased staffing levels marginally.”

“Business confidence sank further in March, with companies pessimistic regarding the 12-month outlook for activity for the second successive month,” Ramsey said. “Brexit uncertainty and the possibility of a 'no-deal' scenario were behind pessimism. Falling activity was predicted across the service, construction and retail sectors.”

Earlier this year, the Office of National Statistics published its employment figures showing that the employment rate for the UK for the quarter ended January 2019 stood at 76.1%, the highest figure on record.