There are not enough UK nationals who are willing and able to fill the low-skill roles currently filled by EU nationals, according to a new report from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation.

The report, Ready, willing and able? Can the UK labour force meet demand after Brexit?, adds that changing recruitment strategies and automation won’t be able to compensate for the anticipated skills shortage for low-skill roles. The report focuses on warehousing, agriculture/horticulture and food production, and hospitality; three sectors of the economy that employ a high proportion of EU workers in low-skill roles

“Low-skilled work is too often talked about as if it’s not vital to our economy, but we need people to pick fruit and veg, sort and pack deliveries to supermarkets, and to cook and serve food once it reaches hotels, school canteens, and restaurants,” REC Chief Executive Kevin Green said. “Employers in these sectors are already talking about downscaling, closing or moving operations overseas if they can’t get people to fill jobs post-Brexit.”

“The government needs to engage with business and ensure that any new immigration system is agile, pragmatic and based on a proper understanding of labour market data,” Green said.

The report showed that although EU nationals make up 7% of the UK labour market overall they account for 15% of workers in low-skilled roles. EU nationals are also concentrated in certain sectors, with 33% in food manufacturing, 18% in warehousing and logistics and 14% in hospitality.

Recruiters warn that it will be impossible to replace EU workers with British substitutes. According to the report, some British jobseekers will be overqualified to perform low-skill roles, while others will be unable to do physically demanding roles because of pre-existing conditions. Meanwhile, recruiters and employers that recruit for low-skilled roles were already facing difficulties getting sufficient workers of any nationality before the EU referendum.

Employers also warn against over-estimating the extent to which automation is a solution to reduced access to EU labour. Some tasks are still too complex to be automated and even for jobs where it might be possible, full automation will be too expensive an investment for SMEs.

 The REC is recommending that:

·        There should be no blanket salary threshold for EU migrants wishing to work in the UK after the UK leaves the EU.

·        Provisions for both temporary workers, and a seasonal workers scheme, must be included in any new immigration system.

·        Employers should be allowed to recruit from the EU for any role that cannot be filled domestically.

·        In its planning for future workforce needs, the government should not overestimate the potential for either automation or UK nationals to fill the labour gap caused by a reduction in EU migration.