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UK – Employer confidence in the economy improves, but remains pessimistic

21 November 2018

Employers’ confidence in the prospects for the UK economy saw a slight improvement in November, but remained negative for the fourth successive month, according to the Recruitment and Employment Confederation’s latest JobsOutlook report.

The net balance of those seeing a positive outlook as opposed to a negative one reached -11, a slight recovery from October’s balance of -14.

Despite the ongoing negativity towards the prospects for the economy, employers’ confidence in making hiring and investment decisions in their own businesses remained in positive territory with a net balance of +16, a rise of 1% from the previous month.

“Today’s survey shows British businesses at their pragmatic best,” Neil Carberry, Recruitment & Employment Confederation Chief Executive said. “Employers remain pessimistic about the longer-term economic outlook - but they are ready to invest in their own businesses to meet demand. Securing the Brexit transition period and a sensible approach to EU immigration to help deal with labour shortages will help to calm those economic fears. A deal will make sure that employers’ confidence in their own business wins out.”

The REC’s report also found that 48% of UK employers who hire permanent staff expressed their concern this quarter over the sufficient availability of candidates for permanent jobs, up from 42% a year earlier. Anticipated shortages of health and social care workers were found to cause the most anxiety for employers for a second successive month.

Engineering & technical, and hospitality workers, were again this month the other two professions where employers expect the most severe skills shortages. 

“The shortages in health and social care sectors is major concern for the NHS with winter approaching,” Carberry said. “Government policy needs to support health commissioners to flexibly manage staffing needs. Without access to agency workers key front line services could be put under threat.”  

Meanwhile, 53% of employers intending to hire temporary workers expressed concerns over the sufficient number of agency workers with the necessary skills they require, up from 46% the previous month, and up from 40% this time last year. Employers are expecting the most severe skills shortages among drivers, followed by industrial and the marketing, media & creative sectors.

The net balance of employers intending to hire agency staff in the short-term rose by 3% compared to the previous month, to a net balance of +19.

The net balance of those intending to hire temporary agency workers remained buoyant in the medium-term, rising to 16%, a rise of 2% from the previous month.

The report also showed that more employers of temporary workers reported that agency workers are important for managing uncertainty in their organisations, this is an increase of 15% compared with the same period last year.

Among those who recruit temporary workers, the percentage using agencies to help them hire temporary workers rose from 38% to 56%. This was driven by the private sector, where proportional usage increased from 37% to 60% year-on-year.

Employer satisfaction with the quality of candidates presented by agencies rose from 69% to 74% year-on-year, while satisfaction levels with agencies themselves rose from 69% to 77%.