Fragile economic conditions around the world means any new adverse development could put the global economy into a recession, the World Bank reported Tuesday. And it would be the first time in more than 80 years that two global recessions have occurred within the same decade.

Potential problems that could push the globe into a recession include higher-than-expected inflation, a resurgence of Covid-19 or escalating geopolitical tensions.

The global economy is expected to grow by 1.7% this year. A previous estimate by the World Bank had put expected growth at 3%.

In the US, the World Bank forecast the economy to fall 0.5% this year. That is 1.9 percentage points below its previous forecasts and the weakest performance outside of official recessions since 1970.

Overall, growth in advanced global economies is projected to slow from 2.5% in 2022 to 0.5% this year. The World Bank noted in the past that slowdowns of this scale have foreshadowed a global recession.

In emerging market and developing economies (excluding China), the World Bank forecast growth to decelerate to 2.7% this year from 3.9% in 2022.

“Emerging and developing countries are facing a multiyear period of slow growth driven by heavy debt burdens and weak investment as global capital is absorbed by advanced economies faced with extremely high government debt levels and rising interest rates,” said David Malpass, president of World Bank Group. “Weakness in growth and business investment will compound the already devastating reversals in education, health, poverty and infrastructure and the increasing demands from climate change.”