The Conference Board’s US leading economic index edged down in January but still suggests modest growth in the near term. The index fell 0.2% in January to a reading of 123.2 (2010 = 100), following a 0.3% decrease in December and a 0.5% increase in November.

“The US [leading economic index] fell slightly in January, driven primarily by large declines in stock prices and further weakness in initial claims for unemployment insurance,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, director of business cycles and growth research at The Conference Board. “Despite back-to-back monthly declines, the index doesn’t signal a significant increase in the risk of recession, and its six-month growth rate remains consistent with a modest economic expansion through early 2016.”