The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the US declined in March, falling 1.2% to a reading of 108.4 (2016=100), its lowest level since November 2020. March’s decrease follows a decline of 0.5% in February.

Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expected the index to fall 0.7% in March.

MarketWatch reported the statistics point to an upcoming downturn in economic activity after the indicator has declined every month in the last year. The last time the series was this negative for this long was from 2007 to 2009.

Overall, the Leading Economic Index is now down 4.5% over the six-month period between September 2022 and March 2023, a steeper rate of decline than its 3.5% contraction over the previous six months.

“The US LEI fell to its lowest level since November of 2020, consistent with worsening economic conditions ahead,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board. “The weaknesses among the index’s components were widespread in March and have been so over the past six months, which pushed the growth rate of the LEI deeper into negative territory.”

Zabinska-La Monica noted only stock prices and manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials contributed positively over the last six months.

“The Conference Board forecasts that economic weakness will intensify and spread more widely throughout the US economy over the coming months, leading to a recession starting in mid-2023,” Zabinska-La Monica said.