The outlook for the US economy improved from three months ago, according to the first-quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

The panel of 37 economists in the report now predicts the economy will expand at an annual rate of 0.6% in this quarter and 1.0% in the second quarter of this year, increases from previous predictions of 0.2% in each quarter.

On an annual average basis, the forecasters expect real GDP to expand 1.3% this year, up from 0.7% projected in the previous forecast.

The forecasters have also revised downward the chance of a contraction in real GDP in any of the next four quarters. The panelists now expect a 40.4% chance of negative growth, down from 47.2% in the previous survey. Forecasts for the next three quarters have also been revised downward.

Along with the improvement in the growth outlook, the forecasters have revised their estimated for the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate is now predicted to increase to 4.1% in the fourth quarter from 3.5% this quarter.

Additionally, the forecasters expect the unemployment rate to average 3.8% in 2023 on an annual basis, a decrease from the previous estimate of 4.2%.

On the employment front, the panelists have revised their estimates for job gains upward. They now project job gains at a monthly rate of 217,800 in 2023, up from 143,600 projected in the previous forecast.