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US economic growth strengthens, Philadelphia Fed forecast gets upward revisions

February 12, 2018

The US economy’s growth outlook is stronger now than three months ago, according to the first-quarter edition of the Survey of Professional Forecasters released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

The forecasters now predict real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 3.0% this quarter, up from the previous estimate of 2.4%. The predictions for quarterly growth over the following three quarters also improved.

For the full year 2018, forecasters now expect GDP to increase by 2.8%, up from an earlier forecast of 2.5%.

An improved outlook for the labor market accompanies the outlook for stronger output growth. The forecasters predict the unemployment rate will be 4.0% in the first and second quarters, before falling to 3.9% and 3.8% in the third and fourth quarters of 2018 respectively. The projections for full-years 2018, 2019, and 2020 are also below those of the last survey.

The forecasters also raised their estimate for job growth in 2018. They now estimate the US will add 175,100 jobs per month in 2018, up from the previous forecast of 163,400 jobs per month.

First Quarter 2018 Survey of Professional Forecasters
  Real GDP (%) Unemployment rate (%) Payrolls (000s/month)
  Q4 report Q1 report Q4 report Q1 report Q4 report Q1 report
             
2018:            
Q1 2.4 3.0 4.1 4.0 164.9 183.3
Q2 2.4 2.9 4.1 4.0 167.0 171.1
Q3 2.1 2.8 4.1 3.9 157.1 168.7
Q4 2.3 2.5 4.0 3.8 155.6 151.8
             
2019:            
Q1 NA 2.4 NA 3.8 NA 172.9
             
Annual Average Data            
2018 2.5 2.8 4.1 4.0 163.4 175.1
2019 2.1 2.5 4.0 3.8 NA 150.3
2020 1.9 2.0 4.1 3.9 NA NA
2021 NA 1.7 NA 4.0 NA NA