The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index fell for the fourth consecutive month, suggesting a slower economic growth in the near term amid recession fears.

It fell 0.8% in June to a level of 117.1 (2016=100). The dip follows a decline of 0.6% in May.

“The US [Leading Economic Index] declined for a fourth consecutive month, suggesting economic growth is likely to slow further in the near term as recession risks grow,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at The Conference Board.

“Consumer pessimism about future business conditions, moderating labor market conditions, falling stock prices and weaker manufacturing new orders drove the LEI’s decline in June,” Ozyildirim said. “The coincident economic index, which rose in June, suggests the economy grew through the second quarter. However, the forward-looking LEI points to a US economic downturn ahead.”

The Conference Board expects economic growth to cool throughout 2022 amid high inflation and rapidly tightening monetary policy.

The organization predicts a recession around the end of the year and early next year. It has now downgraded its annualized GDP forecast for 2022 to 1.7% from 2.3%.