The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index fell for the eighth consecutive month in October, suggesting the economy has entered a possible recession.

It fell 0.8% in October to a level of 114.9 (2016=100). The dip follows a decline of 0.5% in September.

The Leading Economic Index is now down 3.2% over the six months between April and October 2022, reflecting a reversal from its 0.5% growth over the previous six months.

“The US [Leading Economic Index] fell for an eighth consecutive month, suggesting the economy is possibly in a recession,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at The Conference Board.

Ozyildirim noted the downturn in the index reflects consumers’ worsening outlook amid high inflation and rising interest rates, as well as declining prospects for housing construction and manufacturing.

“The Conference Board forecasts real GDP growth will be 1.8% year over year in 2022, and a recession is likely to start around year end and last through mid-2023,” Ozyildirim said.