The US economy will likely go into a recession starting this quarter, according to The Conference Board.

“We forecast that the US economy is likely to be in recession from Q3 2023 to Q1 2024,” Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at the organization, said in a press release. “Elevated prices, tighter monetary policy, harder-to-get credit and reduced government spending are poised to dampen economic growth further.”

The Conference Board reported today its Leading Economic Index for the US fell by 0.7% in June to a reading of 106.1 (2016=100). June’s decline follows a contraction of 0.6% in May.

Zabinska-La Monica said the decrease was fueled by gloomier consumer expectations, weaker new orders, an increased number of initial claims for unemployment and a reduction in housing construction.

“The Leading Index has been in decline for 15 months — the longest streak of consecutive decreases since 2007-08, during the runup to the Great Recession,” she said.

The index is down 4.2% over the six-month period between December 2022 and June 2023 — a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8% contraction over the previous six months (June to December 2022).